Marketing and Research Consulting for a Brave New World
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Over the years, I have had the privilege of collaborating on some very significant studies whose results have been published in peer reviewed journals and white papers. I thought it would be a good idea to put my most impactful work all in one place for easy download, and no gating!

From these efforts, a new science of targeting has emerged, a new and powerful framework for building strong brands, and tools for success in a digital age. I wanted to make these available to the industry. All the images below are clickable, and will let you download the corresponding pdf.

These papers present critical ideas for marketing success in a digital age:

–the fallacy of reach-based media planning and the upside to targeting done right

–the secret to sustaining and building brand market share based on uniquely held beliefs (yes there ARE strong brands and weak brands)

–how to understand which digital upstream metrics are most important at driving successful outcomes

–how to separate the wheat from the chaff when it comes to third party targetable segment IDs

–the enduring power of TV advertising even in a digital age.

–the power of brand loyalty and understanding who your direct competitors truly are

Please help yourself…I hope they give you food for thought and maybe even disturb your world view a little. And if you want to stay informed of the latest in disruptive thinking, please sign up for my newsletter and follow my blog.

My most cited paper, from the Journal of Advertising Research, in the top 4% of all academic journal papers in terms of quantity of citations. Here we prove that brands whose loyalty profile is supported by differentiated beliefs on key driver attributes sustain share over time, while other brands do not.

My most popular work…

My most downloaded deliverable…a mapping of how data can be linked for MTA analysis that creates the broadest coverage and most successful deployment

Getting marketing right in a digital age…

Proved that reach-based media planning is self-defeating and that targeting your advertising is the best strategy for brand growth short and long term, assuming you target a segment we call the Movable Middle…those with a mid-range probability of choosing your brand. In conjunction with Neustar and fueled by Numerator receipt scanning data.
Proved that the combination of targeting heavy and moderate buyers along with timing ad impressions to be delivered close to an upcoming purchase can improve ROAS SIXTEEN fold! and conversely, targeting non-brand buyers is a losing proposition. Research in conjunction with NCS and Viant.
Third party segments have extremely variable validity rates Truthset using a combination of wisdom of the crowds and Bayesian math to identify which IDs really are what they purport to be.
what upstream events really drive add-to-cart conversions? With full line of site inside of walled gardens, DISQO data provides answers that will surprise you.

Other brand and media insights

While at the NPD Group we measured the brand equity of hundreds of brands and from our data, uncovered serious flaws in the statement from Andrew Ehrenberg that there are no strong or weak brands, only big or small. This article was part of a debate in the Journal of Advertising Research.
when I joined the ARF as Chief Research Officer in 2006, the echo chamber was declaring that TV advertising was dying. I conducted a meta-analysis of nearly 400 case studies and found that TV advertising was becoming MORE, not less, effective contrary to convention wisdom. This was presented at the Wharton Future of Advertising consortium and published in the JAR.

 

 

Marketing Science Papers on brand elasticity and market structure

Heavily cited paper, I had the pleasure of working with Prof. Frank Bass to explain the power of Hendry market structure and how we used it at Unilever. It is critical to understand that marketing actions operate through the market structure so what your direct competitors do has much more effect than actions of your indirect competitors. Also worth noting, the concept of market structure does not appear to exist in the NBD Dirichlet model used by Ehrenberg Bass Institute, a serious shortcoming. Published in Management Science.
Working with Prof. Marty Starr of Columbia U and under the direction of Bill Moran at Unilever, We discovered powerful relationships among brand loyalty levels, price elasticity, and market structure effects. Published in the Journal of Marketing Research

Turn trackers into a predictive tool… input ad spending increases and alternative attributes

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Best media strategy requires 1) get the segment right, 2) get the audiences right that deliver a high concentration of that segment.

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Target the Movable Middle…consumers with a mid-range probability of buying your brand.

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The Movable Middle can be sized by using the Beta probability distribution…you just need to know who the category buyers are, and the share and repeat rate of the brand (maps to mean and variance of the Beta). In fact, the share of buyers is the first moment and the repeat rate from a markov matrix […]

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